Deep Shift Technology Tipping Points And Societal Impact

11.09.2019
51 Comments
Deep Shift Technology Tipping Points And Societal Impact Average ratng: 7,7/10 3237 reviews

A tipping point in the climate system is a threshold that, when exceeded, can lead to large changes in the state of the system. Potential tipping points have been identified in the physical climate system, in impacted ecosystems, and sometimes in both.[1] For instance, feedback from the global carbon cycle is a driver for the transition between glacial and interglacial periods, with orbital forcing providing the initial trigger.[2] Earth's geologic temperature record includes many more examples of geologically rapid transitions between different climate states.[3]

Climate tipping points are of particular interest in reference to concerns about climate change in the modern era. Possible tipping point behaviour has been identified for the global mean surface temperature by studying self-reinforcing feedbacks and the past behavior of Earth's climate system. Self-reinforcing feedbacks in the carbon cycle and planetary reflectivity could trigger a cascading set of tipping points that lead the world into a hothouse climate state.[4]

Large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point have been referred to as tipping elements.[5] Tipping elements are found in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, possibly causing tens of meters of sea level rise. These tipping points are not always abrupt. For example, at some level of temperature rise the melt of a large part of the Greenland ice sheet and/or West Antarctic Ice Sheet will become inevitable; but the ice sheet itself may persist for many centuries.[6] Some tipping elements, like the collapse of ecosystems, are irreversible.[1]

The phrase 'tipping point' passed its own tipping point and caught fire after author Malcolm Gladwell's so-named 2000 book. It's now frequently used in discussions about climate change, but what. Sep 9, 2015 - Digital connectivity enabled by the software technologies is changing the society fundamentally. Deep Shift: Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact Digital connectivity enabled by the software technologies is changing the society fundamentally. The scale of the impact and the speed of the changes taking place have made the shift so different from any other industrial revolutions in human history.

Possible tipping elements in the climate system.

Definition

World economic forum reportTipping points in history

The IPCC AR5 defines a tipping point as an irreversible change in the climate system. It states that the precise levels of climate change sufficient to trigger a tipping point remain uncertain, but that the risk associated with crossing multiple tipping points increases with rising temperature.[7] A more broad definition of tipping points is sometimes used as well, which includes abrupt but reversible tipping points.[8][9]

Tipping point behaviour in the climate can also be described in mathematical terms. Tipping points are then seen as any type of bifurcation with hysteresis.[10][11] Hysteresis is the dependence of the state of a system on its history. For instance, depending on how warm and cold it was in the past, there can be differing amounts of ice present on the poles at the same concentration of greenhouse gases or temperature.[12]

In the context of climate change, an 'adaptation tipping point' has been defined as 'the threshold value or specific boundary condition where ecological, technical, economic, spatial or socially acceptable limits are exceeded.'[13]

Tipping points for global temperature

There are many positive and negative feedbacks to global temperatures and the carbon cycle that have been identified. The IPCC reports that feedbacks to increased temperatures are net positive for the remainder of this century, with the impact of cloud cover the largest uncertainty.[14] IPCC carbon cycle models show higher ocean uptake of carbon corresponding to higher concentration pathways, but land carbon uptake is uncertain due to the combined effect of climate change and land use changes.[15]

The geologic record of temperature and greenhouse gas concentration allows climate scientists to gather information on climate feedbacks that lead to different climate states, such as the Late Quaternary (past 1.2 million years), the Pliocene period five million years ago and the Cretaceous period, 100 million years ago. Combining this information with the understanding of current climate change resulted in the finding that 'A 2 °C warming could activate important tipping elements, raising the temperature further to activate other tipping elements in a domino-like cascade that could take the Earth System to even higher temperatures'.[4]

The speed of tipping point feedbacks is a critical concern and the geologic record often fails to provide clarity as to whether past temperature changes have taken only a few decades or many millennia of time. For instance, a tipping point that was once feared to be abrupt and overwhelming is the release of clathrate compounds buried in seabeds and seabed permafrost,[16] but that feedback is now thought to be chronic and long term.[17]

Some individual feedbacks may be strong enough to trigger tipping points on their own. A 2019 study predicts that if greenhouse gases reach three times the current level of atmospheric carbon dioxide that stratocumulus clouds could abruptly disperse, contributing an additional 8 degrees Celsius of warming.[18]

Runaway greenhouse effect

The runaway greenhouse effect is used in astronomical circles to refer to a greenhouse effect that is so extreme that oceans boil away and render a planet uninhabitable, an irreversible climate state that happened on Venus. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report states that 'a 'runaway greenhouse effect'—analogous to Venus—appears to have virtually no chance of being induced by anthropogenic activities.'[19] Venus-like conditions on the Earth require a large long-term forcing that is unlikely to occur until the sun brightens by a few tens of percents, which will take a few billion years.[20]

While a runaway greenhouse effect on Earth is virtually impossible, there are indications that Earth could enter a moist greenhouse state that renders large parts of Earth uninhabitable if the climate forcing is large enough to make water vapour (H2O) a major atmospheric constituent.[21] Conceivable levels of human-made climate forcing would increase water vapour to about 1% of the atmosphere's mass, thus increasing the rate of hydrogen escape to space. If such a forcing were entirely due to CO2, the weathering process would remove the excess atmospheric CO2 well before the ocean was significantly depleted.[20]

Tipping elements

Large scale tipping elements

A smooth or abrupt change in temperature can trigger global-scale tipping points. In the cryosphere these include the irreversible melting of Greenland and Antarcticice sheets. In Greenland, a positive feedback cycle exists between melting and surface elevation. At lower elevations, temperatures are higher, leading to additional melting. This feedback loop can become so strong that irreversible melting occurs.[5]Marine ice sheet instability could trigger a tipping point in West Antarctica.[1] Crossing either of these tipping points leads to accelerated global sea level rise.[6]

When fresh water gets released as a consequence of Greenland melting, a threshold may be crossed which leads to disruption of the thermohaline circulation.[22] The thermohaline circulation transports heat northward which is important for temperature regulation in the Atlantic region.[23] Risks for a complete shutdown are low to moderate under the Paris agreement levels of warming.[1]

Other examples of possible large scale tipping elements are a shift in El Niño–Southern Oscillation. After crossing a tipping point, the warm phase (El Niño) would start to occur more often. Lastly, the southern ocean, which now absorbs a lot of carbon, might switch to a state where it does not do this anymore.[1]

Regional tipping elements

World Economic Forum 2018

Climate change can trigger regional tipping points as well. Examples are the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, the establishment of woody species in tundra, permafrost loss, the collapse of the monsoon of South Asia and a strengthening of the West African monsoon which would lead to greening of the Sahara and Sahel.[1] Deforestation may trigger a tipping point in rainforests. As rain forests recycle a large part of their rainfall, when a portion of the forest is destroyed local droughts may threaten the remainder.[1] Finally, boreal forests are considered a tipping element as well. Local warming causes trees to die at a higher rate than before, in proportion to the rise in temperature. As more trees die, the woodland becomes more open, leading to further warming and making forests more susceptible to fire. The tipping point is difficult to predict, but is estimated to be between 3–4 °C of global temperature rise.[1]

Cascading tipping points

Crossing a threshold in one part of the climate system may trigger another tipping element to tip into a new state. These are so-called cascading tipping points.[24] Ice loss in West Antarctica and Greenland will significantly alter ocean circulation. Sustained warming of the northern high latitudes as a result of this process could activate tipping elements in that region, such as permafrost degradation, loss of Arctic sea ice, and Boreal forest dieback. This illustrates that even at relatively low levels of global warming, relatively stable tipping elements may be activated.[25]

Early warning signals

For some of the tipping points described above, it may be possible to detect whether that part of the climate system is getting closer to a tipping point. All parts of the climate system are sometimes disturbed by weather events. After the disruption, the system moves back to its equilibrium. A storm may damage sea ice, which grows back after the storm has passed. If a system is getting closer to tipping, this restoration to its normal state might take increasingly longer, which can be used as a warning sign of tipping.[26][27]

Tipping point effects

If the climate tips into a hothouse Earth scenario, some scientists warn of food and water shortages, hundreds of millions of people being displaced by rising sea levels, unhealthy and unlivable conditions, and coastal storms having larger impacts.[25] Runaway climate change of 4–5 °C can make swathes of the planet around the equator uninhabitable, with sea levels up to 60 metres (197 ft) higher than they are today threatening coastal cities.[28] Humans cannot survive if the air is too moist and hot, which would happen for the majority of human populations if global temperatures rise by 11–12 °C, as land masses warm faster than the global average.[29] Effects like these have been popularized in books like The Uninhabitable Earth, which climate change deniers refer to as sensationalized 'climate disaster porn'.[30]

See also

References

  1. ^ abcdefghHoegh-Guldberg, O.D.; Jacob, M.; Taylor, M.; S., Bindi; Brown, I. (2018). 'Impacts of 1.5°C of Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems'(PDF). Global Warming of 1.5°C. In Press.
  2. ^Shackleton, N. J. (2000). 'The 100,000-Year Ice-Age Cycle Identified and Found to Lag Temperature, Carbon Dioxide, and Orbital Eccentricity'. Science. 289 (5486): 1897–902. Bibcode:2000Sci...289.1897S. doi:10.1126/science.289.5486.1897. PMID10988063.
  3. ^Zachos, J.; Pagani, M.; Sloan, L.; Thomas, E.; Billups, K. (2001). 'Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present'. Science. 292 (5517): 686–693. Bibcode:2001Sci...292..686Z. doi:10.1126/science.1059412. PMID11326091.
  4. ^ abSheridan, Kerry (2018-08-06). 'Earth risks tipping into 'hothouse' state: study'. Phys.org. pnas. Retrieved 2018-08-08. Hothouse Earth is likely to be uncontrollable and dangerous to many ... global average temperatures would exceed those of any interglacial period—meaning warmer eras that come in between Ice Ages—of the past 1.2 million years.
  5. ^ abLenton, T.M.; Held, H.; Kriegler, E.; Hall, J.W.; Lucht, W.; Rahmstorf, S.; Schellnhuber, H.J. (2008). 'Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system'. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 105 (6): 1786–1793. Bibcode:2008PNAS..105.1786L. doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105. PMC2538841. PMID18258748.
  6. ^ ab'Tipping points in Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets'. NESSC. 12 November 2018. Retrieved 2019-02-25.
  7. ^IPCC AR5 WGII (2014). 'Summary for policymakers'(PDF). Climate change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (Report).
  8. ^Lenton, Timothy M. (2011). 'Early warning of climate tipping points'. Nature Climate Change. 1 (4): 201–209. doi:10.1038/nclimate1143. ISSN1758-6798.
  9. ^Livina, V.N.; Lohmann, G.; Mudelsee, M.; Lenton, T.M. (2013). 'Forecasting the underlying potential governing the time series of a dynamical system'. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. 392 (18): 3891–3902. arXiv:1212.4090. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2013.04.036.
  10. ^Lenton, Timothy M.; Williams, Hywel T.P. (2013). 'On the origin of planetary-scale tipping points'. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 28 (7): 380–382. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.06.001.
  11. ^Smith, Adam B.; Revilla, Eloy; Mindell, David P.; Matzke, Nicholas; Marshall, Charles; Kitzes, Justin; Gillespie, Rosemary; Williams, John W.; Vermeij, Geerat (2012). 'Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere'. Nature. 486 (7401): 52–58. doi:10.1038/nature11018. ISSN1476-4687.
  12. ^Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert M. (2005). 'Hysteresis in Cenozoic Antarctic ice-sheet variations'. Global and Planetary Change. 45 (1–3): 9–12. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.09.011.
  13. ^Ahmed, Farhana; Khan, M Shah Alam; Warner, Jeroen; Moors, Eddy; Terwisscha Van Scheltinga, Catharien (2018-06-28). 'Integrated Adaptation Tipping Points (IATPs) for urban flood resilience'. Environment and Urbanization. 30 (2): 575–596. doi:10.1177/0956247818776510. ISSN0956-2478.
  14. ^IPCC AR5 (2013). 'Technical Summary- TFE.6 Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks'(PDF). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (Report). The water vapour/lapse rate, albedo and cloud feedbacks are the principal determinants of equilibrium climate sensitivity. All of these feedbacks are assessed to be positive, but with different levels of likelihood assigned ranging from likely to extremely likely. Therefore, there is high confidence that the net feedback is positive and the black body response of the climate to a forcing will therefore be amplified. Cloud feedbacks continue to be the largest uncertainty.
  15. ^IPCC AR5 (2013). 'Technical Summary- TFE.7 Carbon Cycle Perturbation and Uncertainties'(PDF). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (Report).
  16. ^Archer, David (2007). 'Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change'(PDF). Biogeosciences. 4 (4): 521–544. doi:10.5194/bg-4-521-2007. Retrieved 2009-05-25.
  17. ^'Study finds hydrate gun hypothesis unlikely'. Phys.org. 23 August 2017.
  18. ^Emiliano Rodríguez Mega (26 February 2019). 'Clouds' cooling effect could vanish in a warmer world'. Nature. Springer Nature Publishing. doi:10.1038/d41586-019-00685-x. Retrieved 24 March 2019. High concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide can result in the dispersal of cloud banks that reflect roughly 30% of the sunlight that hits them.
  19. ^Scoping of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report Cross Cutting Issues(PDF). Thirty-first Session of the IPCC Bali, 26–29 October 2009 (Report). Archived from the original(PDF) on 2009-11-09. Retrieved 2019-03-24.
  20. ^ abHansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker (2013). 'Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide'. Philos Trans a Math Phys Eng Sci. Royal Society. 371 (2001). 20120294. Bibcode:2013RSPTA.37120294H. doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0294. PMC3785813. PMID24043864.
  21. ^Kasting, JF (1988). 'Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of Earth and Venus'. Icarus. 74 (3): 472–494. Bibcode:1988Icar...74..472K. doi:10.1016/0019-1035(88)90116-9. PMID11538226.
  22. ^Lenton, Timothy M. (2012). 'Arctic Climate Tipping Points'. AMBIO. 41 (1): 10–22. doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0221-x. ISSN1654-7209. PMC3357822. PMID22270703.
  23. ^Belaia, Mariia; Funke, Michael; Glanemann, Nicole (2017). 'Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion'. Environmental and Resource Economics. 67 (1): 93–125. doi:10.1007/s10640-015-9978-x. ISSN1573-1502.
  24. ^Levin, Simon; Bodin, Örjan; Peterson, Garry; Rocha, Juan C. (2018). 'Cascading regime shifts within and across scales'. Science. 362 (6421): 1379–1383. doi:10.1126/science.aat7850. ISSN0036-8075. PMID30573623.
  25. ^ abSchellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Scheffer, Marten; Lade, Steven J.; Fetzer, Ingo; Donges, Jonathan F.; Crucifix, Michel; Cornell, Sarah E.; Barnosky, Anthony D. (2018). 'Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene'. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 115 (33): 8252–8259. doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115. ISSN0027-8424. PMC6099852. PMID30082409.
  26. ^Lenton, T.M.; Livina, V.N.; Dakos, V.; Van Nes, E.H.; Scheffer, M. (2012). 'Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness'. Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences. 370 (1962): 1185–1204. doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0304. ISSN1364-503X. PMC3261433. PMID22291229.
  27. ^Williamson, Mark S.; Bathiany, Sebastian; Lenton, Tim (2016). 'Early warning signals of tipping points inperiodically forced systems'. Earth System Dynamics. 7 (2): 313–326. doi:10.5194/esd-7-313-2016.
  28. ^'Earth 'just decades away from global warming tipping point which threatens future of humanity''. ITV News. Retrieved 2019-02-25.
  29. ^Sherwood, S.C.; Huber, M. (2010). 'An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress'. PNAS. 107 (21): 9552–9555. Bibcode:2010PNAS..107.9552S. doi:10.1073/pnas.0913352107. PMC2906879. PMID20439769.
  30. ^Jennifer Szalai (6 March 2019). 'In 'The Uninhabitable Earth,' Apocalypse Is Now'. The New York Times.

External links

  • Billings, Lee (12 March 2010). 'How the extinction of the dinosaurs, Arctic methane leaks, and nuclear weaponry reveal the precarious thresholds of life on Earth'. Seed.
  • Cascio, Jamais (9 March 2010). 'Pushing Back Against the Methane Tipping Point'. Worldchanging. Archived from the original on 29 April 2010.
  • Keim, Brandon (December 23, 2009). '7 Tipping Points That Could Transform Earth'. Wired.
  • Quick-Change Planet: Do Global Climate Tipping Points Exist? March 25, 2013 Scientific American

Climate Tipping Points

Abrupt climate change

An abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to transition to a new climate state at a rate that is determined by the climate system energy-balance, and which is more rapid than the rate of change of the external forcing. Past events include the end of the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse, Younger Dryas, Dansgaard-Oeschger events, Heinrich events and possibly also the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. The term is also used within the context of global warming to describe sudden climate change that is detectable over the time-scale of a human lifetime, possibly as the result of feedback loops within the climate system.Timescales of events described as 'abrupt' may vary dramatically. Changes recorded in the climate of Greenland at the end of the Younger Dryas, as measured by ice-cores, imply a sudden warming of +10 °C (+18 °F) within a timescale of a few years. Other abrupt changes are the +4 °C (+7.2 °F) on Greenland 11,270 years ago or the abrupt +6 °C (11 °F) warming 22,000 years ago on Antarctica. By contrast, the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum may have initiated anywhere between a few decades and several thousand years. Finally, Earth Systems models project that under ongoing greenhouse gas emissions as early as 2047, the Earth's near surface temperature could depart from the range of variability in the last 150 years, affecting over 3 billion people and most places of great species diversity on Earth.

Climate change feedback

Climate change feedback is important in the understanding of global warming because feedback processes may amplify or diminish the effect of each climate forcing, and so play an important part in determining the climate sensitivity and future climate state. Feedback in general is the process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity, and the change in the second quantity in turn changes the first. Positive feedback amplifies the change in the first quantity while negative feedback reduces it.The term 'forcing' means a change which may 'push' the climate system in the direction of warming or cooling. An example of a climate forcing is increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. By definition, forcings are external to the climate system while feedbacks are internal; in essence, feedbacks represent the internal processes of the system. Some feedbacks may act in relative isolation to the rest of the climate system; others may be tightly coupled; hence it may be difficult to tell just how much a particular process contributes.Forcings and feedbacks together determine how much and how fast the climate changes. The main positive feedback in global warming is the tendency of warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, which in turn leads to further warming. The main negative feedback comes from the Stefan–Boltzmann law, the amount of heat radiated from the Earth into space changes with the fourth power of the temperature of Earth's surface and atmosphere. Observations and modelling studies indicate that there is a net positive feedback to warming. Large positive feedbacks can lead to effects that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change.'

Climate sensitivity

Climate sensitivity is the globally averaged temperature change in response to changes in radiative forcing, which can occur, for instance, due to increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2). Although the term climate sensitivity is usually used in the context of radiative forcing by CO2, it is thought of as a general property of the climate system: the change in surface air temperature following a unit change in radiative forcing, and the climate sensitivity parameter is therefore expressed in units of °C/(W/m2). For this to be useful, the measure must be independent of the nature of the forcing (e.g. from greenhouse gases or solar variation); which is true approximately. When climate sensitivity is expressed for a doubling of CO2, its units are degrees Celsius (°C).

In the context of global warming, different measures of climate sensitivity are used. The so-called equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) denotes the temperature increase in °C that would result from sustained doubling of the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere relative to that of the initial state, after the climate system had reached a new steady state called equilibrium. The transient climate response (TCR) is the amount of temperature increase that might occur at the time when CO2 doubles, having increased gradually by 1% each year (compounded). The earth system sensitivity (ESS) includes the effects of very-long-term Earth system feedback loops, such as changes in ice sheets or changes in the distribution of vegetative cover.Climate sensitivity is typically estimated in three ways; by using observations taken during the industrial age, by using temperature and other data from the Earth's past and by modelling the physical equations of the climate system in computers. For coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models the climate sensitivity is an emergent property; rather than being a model parameter it is a result of a combination of model physics and parameters. By contrast, simpler energy-balance models may have climate sensitivity as an explicit parameter.

Climate state

Climate state describes a state of climate on Earth and similar terrestrial planets based on a thermal energy budget, such as the greenhouse or icehouse climate state.

The main climate state change is between periodical glacial and interglacial cycles in Earth history, studied from climate proxies. The climate system is responding to the current climate forcing and adjusts following climate sensitivity to reach a climate equilibrium, Earth's energy balance. Model simulations suggest that the current interglacial climate state will continue for at least another 100,000 years, due to CO2 emissions - including complete deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere.

Cybernetics

Cybernetics is a transdisciplinary approach for exploring regulatory systems—their structures, constraints, and possibilities. Norbert Wiener defined cybernetics in 1948 as 'the scientific study of control and communication in the animal and the machine.' In other words, it is the scientific study of how humans, animals and machines control and communicate with each other.

Cybernetics is applicable when a system being analyzed incorporates a closed signaling loop—originally referred to as a 'circular causal' relationship—that is, where action by the system generates some change in its environment and that change is reflected in the system in some manner (feedback) that triggers a system change. Cybernetics is relevant to, for example, mechanical, physical, biological, cognitive, and social systems. The essential goal of the broad field of cybernetics is to understand and define the functions and processes of systems that have goals and that participate in circular, causal chains that move from action to sensing to comparison with desired goal, and again to action. Its focus is how anything (digital, mechanical or biological) processes information, reacts to information, and changes or can be changed to better accomplish the first two tasks. Cybernetics includes the study of feedback, black boxes and derived concepts such as communication and control in living organisms, machines and organizations including self-organization.

Concepts studied by cyberneticists include, but are not limited to: learning, cognition, adaptation, social control, emergence, convergence, communication, efficiency, efficacy, and connectivity. In cybernetics these concepts (otherwise already objects of study in other disciplines such as biology and engineering) are abstracted from the context of the specific organism or device.

The word cybernetics comes from Greek κυβερνητική (kybernētikḗ), meaning 'governance', i.e., all that are pertinent to κυβερνάω (kybernáō), the latter meaning 'to steer, navigate or govern', hence κυβέρνησις (kybérnēsis), meaning 'government', is the government while κυβερνήτης (kybernḗtēs) is the governor or 'helmperson' of the 'ship'. Contemporary cybernetics began as an interdisciplinary study connecting the fields of control systems, electrical network theory, mechanical engineering, logic modeling, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, anthropology, and psychology in the 1940s, often attributed to the Macy Conferences. During the second half of the 20th century cybernetics evolved in ways that distinguish first-order cybernetics (about observed systems) from second-order cybernetics (about observing systems). More recently there is talk about a third-order cybernetics (doing in ways that embraces first and second-order).Studies in cybernetics provide a means for examining the design and function of any system, including social systems such as business management and organizational learning, including for the purpose of making them more efficient and effective. Fields of study which have influenced or been influenced by cybernetics include game theory, system theory (a mathematical counterpart to cybernetics), perceptual control theory, sociology, psychology (especially neuropsychology, behavioral psychology, cognitive psychology), philosophy, architecture, and organizational theory. System dynamics, originated with applications of electrical engineering control theory to other kinds of simulation models (especially business systems) by Jay Forrester at MIT in the 1950s, is a related field.

Global catastrophic risk

A global catastrophic risk is a hypothetical future event which could damage human well-being on a global scale, even crippling or destroying modern civilization. An event that could cause human extinction or permanently and drastically curtail humanity's potential is known as an existential risk.Potential global catastrophic risks include anthropogenic risks, caused by humans (technology, governance, climate change), and non-anthropogenic or external risks. Examples of technology risks are hostile artificial intelligence and destructive biotechnology or nanotechnology. Insufficient or malign global governance creates risks in the social and political domain, such as a global war, including nuclear holocaust, bioterrorism using genetically modified organisms, cyberterrorism destroying critical infrastructure like the electrical grid; or the failure to manage a natural pandemic. Problems and risks in the domain of earth system governance include global warming, environmental degradation, including extinction of species, famine as a result of non-equitable resource distribution, human overpopulation, crop failures and non-sustainable agriculture.

Examples of non-anthropogenic risks are an asteroid impact event, a supervolcanic eruption, a lethal gamma-ray burst, a geomagnetic storm destroying electronic equipment, natural long-term climate change, hostile extraterrestrial life, or the predictable Sun transforming into a red giant star engulfing the Earth.

Global warming

Global warming is a long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system; an aspect of climate change shown by temperature measurements and by multiple effects of the warming. Though earlier geological periods also experienced episodes of warming, the term commonly refers to the observed and continuing increase in average air and ocean temperatures since 1900 caused mainly by emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the modern industrial economy. In the modern context the terms global warming and climate change are commonly used interchangeably, but climate change includes both global warming and its effects, such as changes to precipitation and impacts that differ by region. Many of the observed changes in climate since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature record, and in historical and paleoclimate proxy records of climate change over thousands to millions of years.In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report concluded, 'It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.' The largest human influence has been the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century, the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects. These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.Effects of global warming include rising sea levels, regional changes in precipitation, more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, and expansion of deserts. Surface temperature increases are greatest in the Arctic, with the continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. Overall, higher temperatures bring more rain and snowfall, but for some regions droughts and wildfires increase instead. Climate change impacts humans by, amongst other things, threatening food security from decreasing crop yields, and the abandonment of populated areas and damage to infrastructure due to rising sea levels. Environmental impacts include the extinction or relocation of ecosystems as they adapt to climate change, with coral reefs, mountain ecosystems, and Arctic ecosystems most immediately threatened. Because the climate system has a large 'inertia' and greenhouse gases will remain in the atmosphere for a long time, climatic changes and their effects will continue to become more pronounced for many centuries even if further increases to greenhouse gases stop.Globally, a majority of people consider global warming a serious or very serious issue. Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction, adaptation to its effects, and possible future climate engineering. Every country in the world is a party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change. Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) compared to pre-industrial levels, with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). Some scientists call into question climate adaptation feasibility, with higher emissions scenarios, or the two degree temperature target

Glossary of climate change

This article serves as a glossary of climate change terms. It lists terms that are related to global warming.

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

Hans Joachim 'John' Schellnhuber (born 7 June 1950) is a German atmospheric physicist, climatologist and founding director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and ex-chair of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU).

List of apocalyptic films

This is a list of apocalyptic feature-length films. All films within this list feature either the end of the world, a prelude to such an end (such as a world taken over by a viral infection), and/or a post-apocalyptic setting.

Veerabhadran Ramanathan

Veerabhadran Ramanathan (born November 24, 1944) is Victor Alderson Professor of Applied Ocean Sciences and director of the Center for Atmospheric Sciences at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego. He has contributed to many areas of the atmospheric sciences including developments to general circulation models, atmospheric chemistry, and radiative transfer. He has been a part of major projects such as the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), and is known for his contributions to the area of atmospheric aerosol research. He has received numerous awards, and is a member of the US National Academy of Sciences. He has spoken about the topic of global warming, and written that 'the effect of greenhouse gases on global warming is, in my opinion, the most important environmental issue facing the world today.'

Global warming and climate change
Temperatures
Anthropogenic
(caused by human activity)
  • (Infrared window)
Natural
  • Ocean variability
Models
General
  • (Popular culture)
By country & region
  • (Manufactured controversy)
General
By country
Kyoto Protocol
Governmental
  • Paris Agreement
Emissions reduction
Carbon-free energy
Personal
Other
Strategies
Programmes
  • Climate change
  • Global warming
  • Portal

This page is based on a Wikipedia article written by authors (here).
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 3.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.